Priorities

Having solved most of the other problems plaguing the city – astronomical rents, high unemployment, a plight of douchebags on Wall Street – Bloomberg’s New York city council voted last week to ban smoking on beaches and public parks. Which at this point leaves pretty much only sidewalks, cars, and the home as places where it’s even possible to do so.

And of course Boston wants to follow in the big city’s footsteps. Is this seriously all we have time for? Curtailing some more rights while actual issues go unaddressed? I know, I know, that’s what government is all about. But really. Next they’ll come for the sidewalk, and then for the cars, and finally it will be restricted to the home but most people live in rentals where that won’t be cool, so maybe this is all a grand scheme to get someone to buy all those empty houses.

I’ve railed against this stuff for a while. Not because I see smoking bans as the final step before the arrival of jackboots on our streets, but because it’s just another small, tiny erosion of liberty in a country that’s ignored the far more meaningful ones. And even then, I’m not some sort of unreasonable full-on libertarian about it; I understand the general existing bans in restaurants, and workplaces, and hospitals. But what I just can’t fathom is banning it in bars.

I have had a proposal in my head for quite a while that would never even reach consideration because it’s too common-sense. The issue here is one of choice. No one is forcing anyone to go to a bar. And yet, whatever, the interests of political correctness require me to say that people who want one deserve a smoke-free bar (even if they’re idiots, but whatever). To give everyone options, here’s what a state can do – and a make a load of money in the process.

Let’s take a state, any state, like the lost Absaroka. Assume, for the sake of simple math, that that state has 10,000 bars in it (and also that Absaroka has passed a statewide smoking ban already). Now, let’s say that according to public health statistics, Absaroka has a 25% smoking rate across the state. 25% of 10,000 is 2,500, and so that is how many “smoking licenses” the state decides to produce. Every license grants an establishment the right to permit smoking, provided that it adheres to certain and specific ventilation requirements. And then these licenses are auctioned off to the highest bidder.

Everybody wins! Smokers have a bar to go to, nonsmokers still have the vast majority of venues open to them (and they can also choose to go inside a bar that allows smoking). Bars can cater to one crowd or the other – before bidding on a license, they can determine for themselves whether it would be worth it or not to convert their premises, or what sort of clientele they’re aiming to attract. In this scenario we preserve choice, give options, raise some money, let the free market handle things for the most part, and let a little bit of liberty back into the political discussion.

All those reasons are of course why it would never ever happen. Blanket bans and universal approaches are all that government is capable of these days. And also, people never want anything unpleasant to bother them in any way ever. But everyone suffers a little when their will is enacted.

The Problem is You

Appearing at No. 1 on The Beast’s “50 Most Loathsome Americans of 2010” is… you:

Your brain’s been cobbled together over millions of years of blind evolution and it shows. You’re clumsy, stupid, weak and motivated by the basest of urges. Your MO is both grotesquely selfish and unquestionably deferential to questionable authority. You’re not in control of your life. You wear your ignorance like a badge of honor and gleefully submit to oppression, malfeasance and kleptocracy. You will buy anything. You will believe anything. You believe that evolution is a matter of belief. You likely scrolled down to #1, without reading the rest, because you’re an impatient, semi-literate Philistine who’s either unable or unwilling to digest more than 140 characters at a time. You think Epic Beard Man is a national hero and that Bradley Manning might be Eli and Peyton’s brother. You believe in American exceptionalism despite the contrary, compelling and overwhelming evidence. You tacitly partake in all manner of atrocity without batting a lash. You’re actively participating in our species’ extinction and you’re either in denial or you just don’t give a shit. You escape into every sort of mind-numbing distraction and ridiculous, convoluted fantasy, so you don’t have to face the bitter, terrifying fact that your life is utterly meaningless.

Our final sentence? “Bad teeth, an affinity for afternoon tea and the guilt-plagued, nostalgic psyche of a fallen empire.” Guess this cancels out our appearance as TIME‘s person of the year.

The Weather Outside is Frightful

Bloggers who specialize in raising doubts about climate science have gleefully pointed to the recent winters in the United States and Europe as evidence that climatologists must be mistaken about a warming trend. These commentators have not been as eager to write about the strange warmth in parts of the Arctic, a region that scientists have long predicted will warm more rapidly than the planet as a whole.

- “Topsy, Turvy Weather: U.S. is Frigid, Arctic Balmy
The New York Times

It’s -2° in Boston (and it feels like -20°). In New York it’s 12° and it feels like 2°. Montreal… You don’t even want to know what the temperature is in Montreal. Also, it’s probably in Celsius.

Anyways, the Northwest Passage is now open for business. Because the Arctic is getting fucking warmer while the rest of the Northern Hemisphere freezes its collective ass off. Hence the now-obsolete expression “global warming.”

Meanwhile here in Chicago, it’s a balmy 20°out.

In the mountains…

A Happy New Year to all our readers. I would apologize for my dereliction of writing, but we’ve all been derelict of certain things in our lives, so no apology from old Flashy. Besides myself and Mandrake have been investing a great deal of our time in the ancient art of pugilism. The time I spend not having my moustache do the fighting for me, I’ve been trying to catch up with all the books I received for Saturnalia (not unlike this young gentleman).

I just recently finished Matterhorn by Karl Marlantes, which – though it was released recently on March 23rd of 2010 – is already being called the greatest novel written on the Vietnam War. This is no small feat, as both the Observer and the New York Times Book Review, admit freely. Even nearly 4 decades after it’s conclusion it remains one of the most (if not the most) controversial war the United States has ever embarked upon. So much so that, unless you believe the it’s-Nixon’s-fault-for-everything theory, the Vietnam War can be the defining cause of a long list century-altering events (none so small as the utter neutering of the Democratic Party since 1968 with only a few fleeting exceptions).

Even before starting, the reader is made immediately aware at how intimate the author is to his subject. The Glossary, command structure and other appendices are exhaustive, to the point of referencing the obvious. Marlantes is himself a Vietnam vet, which isn’t necessarily shocking until perusing some reviews and discovering that he’s been writing the book since he got back from ‘the Crotch’ in 1970. This begs the question on how much of the novel is actually a novel. Marlantes was educated at Yale University and a Rhode Scholar, who served with distinction in Vietnam. The main character (if there really could be called a main character, this is truly a ensemble cast so much so that in the early going it’s hard to keep them all straight) is named Mellas and is the recent graduate of an unnamed Ivy League school. He’s an idealist and his confusion and rage at the incompetence and mismanagement he witnesses is not unlike many memoirs of Ivy League students who have joined the United States military. Still, this critique is ticky tack at best. Where and whether he drew from imagination and what may actually have happened is truly immaterial. The book is astonishing, in its breadth, its hard and its ability to capture an incredibly difficult war.

What’s so incredible is how he captures this tone. In his review of the book for the New York Times Book Review Sebastian Junger, whose documentary Restrepo might be the best explanation of the 10 year old War In Afghanistan, begins by saying

Every war novel must at some point confront a central contradiction. Only the truth has any real value, but the truth about war is that it contains nearly unbearable levels of repetition, boredom and meaninglessness. To write honestly about war, you should make readers feel they have endured those things as well. Yet no sane novelist wants to inflict that much discomfort on the audience. And so we read novels (and watch movies) filled with the kind of bravery and drama that make war look at least entertaining, if not admirable. Many of those works are tremendous artistic achievements. But they’re not war.

Marlantes, astoundingly, handles this in a way that is militaristic in its execution. Just as he forced tired, wounded, confused, and scared soldiers through the jungles of Vietnam, Marlantes the author forces the reader through the thickets, muddy hilltops and dark jungle ridges of his narrative. Characters die and are replaced with a cold heartedness that makes you wish you had the willpower to put the book down, to say “Fuck this” and walk away. But just as dead soldiers are replaced by fresh faced kids from ‘the world’ (a phenomena in every war) so too are these characters left, bodies in a bag of Marlantes and the reader’s imagination.

However, this  risks leaving a foul taste in the reader’s mouth. Through the mud and blood of human conflict we’re left with no possible conclusion, no greater understanding of human interaction, in war or in peace. There is no St. Crispin’s day speech or moment in this book. Beyond fighting the North Vietnamese, the Viet Cong and their own Colonels and Generals, the grunts of Matterhorn must also contend with the utter violence of either their own or their comrades racial bigotry. Coming from a generation in which the Vietnam War was made up of photographs of black and white soldiers dying together and movies where it was given only the most cursory of mentions, the racial problem that underlies the entirety of the book never gets any better. In promise of hope is nothing but fools gold, and in the end Marlantes seems to be showing that fools gold is far more dangerous than outright prejudice. Those that try to strattle the line our caught in a wave of hatred that they can’t begin to fully understand, no matter how much others try and make it clear. The soldiers of Matterhorn are fighting too many battles, and after long stretches of reading the exhaustion of these battles begins to seep into the reader, leaving them to ponder not only the horrors racism’s past, but to also worry if it’s really gotten better or just more easily and cautiously hidden.

Despite the emotional involvement this book takes, and the drain it can have on even the most removed of individuals, it is a must read for anyone wanting to understand the varying topics of the Vietnam War specifically, the very event that shaped so much of the second half of the 20th Century, or one of the basic human conditions that force us to make war on one another. However, reader beware. There are no clear answers to be drawn from Matterhorn, no conclusions on the aforementioned questions to hang your hat. The book, like Vietnam and War in general, ends just as it begins; long stretches of nothingness and boredom punctuated by the cacophony that is the chaotic, confused and vicious struggle for life on the field of sudden death.

Losing the Battle, Losing the War



President Obama is really lucky the Republican’s don’t have a strong candidate for 2012 – or that the Democrats don’t have a strong primary challenger for that matter. (I really don’t think Bloomberg will run, I think he’s jumping into the spotlight to try and get a cabinet post…He’s too smart to run third party…)

The President’s (not-at-all shocking) decision to extend tax breaks for the wealthiest of Americans after Senate Democrats failed to get their act together is more than disconcerting for the 2012 political climate. According to a recent McClatchy-Marist poll, 45% of Democrats want someone to challenge Obama for the Democratic nomination and, assuming he wins re-nomination, just 1 in 3 voters (36%) said they’ll definitely vote for him, while nearly half (48%) said they’ll definitely vote against him. That poll was taken just a few weeks ago, imagine what the numbers would be today.

The problem with the tax cut compromise is a systematic problem with the Administration: they’re horrible at PR. They were amazing at crafting and distributing their message on the campaign trail, but stopped once they got into the oval office. Only 13% of the compromise deals with tax breaks for the 1% and the rest of it is full of great stuff for the economy. Of its estimated $900 billion-plus cost over two years, only $120 billion covers the high-end tax cuts and the estate tax cut, $450 billion covers Mr. Obama’s wish list and $360 billion covers tax cut extensions for the middle class. However, all we take away from this is Obama broke his promise, gave tax breaks to the top 1%.

The other inevitable problem is that Barry has conceded the economic debate to the Republicans for 2012 – the #1 issue for voters. The economy will have done better in 2012 because of the tax breaks or remained limp because of the socialist federal spending. It will be a huge talking point for the GOP on the campaign trail and help them in the voting booth – “vote republican and get another tax break!” And worse, there will be more “validity” to extending the tax cuts again in 2012 with the economy improving (fingers crossed).

However, this is going to be a huge problem for Congressional Democrats, not Obama – He’ll get re-elected.

Democrats will be defending 24 Senate seats in 2012 while the Republicans have just 9 seats up.

Many of the Democratic senators up for re-election are moderate Democrats who hail from battleground states, including Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Bill Nelson of Florida and Jim Webb of Virginia. Others from traditionally Republican-leaning states may have it even harder, including Kent Conrad of North Dakota, “Corn-Husker” Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and Jon Tester of Montana. Oh and Joe Lieberman is up too, but he doesn’t count. Congressional Blue Dog Democrats were taken out back old yeller style and lost nearly 50% of their coalition in the 2010 election; taking the worst beating by far, going from 54 members to a mere 26.

Democrats, Obama, let me spell it out for you: 2012 is going to be rough for you, please get your shit together.

Tactics

Matt Bors has really been on fire lately.

The Worst Analogy in the World

Extending the Bush-era tax cuts for all is stupid and a betrayal, Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing, the entire Democratic coalition is at risk, etc., etc. But beyond the obvious idiocy of this latest capitulation, the president managed to completely fuck up twice. The first was when he specifically castigated those people – you know the types – who really liked and respected him and are now disappointed by him. Here’s his loud “fuck you“:

“This is the public-option debate all over again,” Mr. Obama complained, adding: “Now, if that’s the standard by which we are measuring success or core principles, then, let’s face it, we will never get anything done. People will have the satisfaction of having a purist position and no victories for the American people…

“My job is to make sure that we have a North Star out there,” he said. “What is helping the American people live out their lives?”

Here’s something that helps people live: not slashing budgets in order to satisfy the tax demands of fucking millionaires. It would be nice to see some priorities, but asking for some backbone from this president clearly surpasses his abilities. What would you expect from a president who couches his cowardice in these terms:

I’ve said before that I felt that the middle-class tax cuts were being held hostage to the high-end tax cuts.  I think it’s tempting not to negotiate with hostage-takers, unless the hostage gets harmed.  Then people will question the wisdom of that strategy.  In this case, the hostage was the American people and I was not willing to see them get harmed.

So what you’re saying is that you’re willing to negotiate with fucking terrorists? That if you’re threatened enough, you’ll cry uncle and give them whatever the hell they want? Jesus Christ; that’s really inspiring to hear coming from the leader of the free world. That’s it for this president. I mean, seriously, any leadership or conviction this man once showed clearly no longer exists. Would President Marshall have surrendered like that? President Palmer? Hell, would George W. Bush have been such a pussy?

Rational Pessimism

Matt Ridley’s new book about how we’ve got it so good today, The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves, has met with pretty decent reviews. I only just got around to reading Brendan O’Neill’s review for The American Conservative today (yes, yes, I know it’s dated August 1, but I’ve been busy), and it quashed any desire I might have had to read it.

I mean, I know I’m a pretty ornery cuss, but let’s face it: despite rapid advances in material prosperity, we as a society don’t seem particularly happy with our lot. O’Neill is right in saying that all the threats guaranteed to kill us all – Y2K, Bird Flu, that Man-Bird-Pig disease of a year or two ago – have never materialized, and that despite our constant worrying over the end, if it indeed comes it is almost certain to catch us by surprise.

And yet, there is so much of Ridley’s overall hypothesis that seems to make no sense. At the risk of becoming one of the “angry, graph-obsessed nitpicking” types O’Neill warns against, I think it would make sense to examine Ridley’s actual claims and see why they ring hollow.

In just the past 50 years, the average human “earned nearly three times as much money (corrected for inflation), ate one-third more calories of food, buried one-third as many of her children, and could expect to live one-third longer.”

Right off the bat, I can see one problem here: the average human. While wages and prosperity have risen steadily around the world, in the United States income disparity is at historical levels. Productivity has soared in the past fifty years, but relative worker pay has dropped precipitously. We’re doing more and getting paid less to do it. So while much of the world may have seen a tangible increase in quality-of-life, we’re in many ways worse off than we were 20, 30 years ago.

Ridley also cites much longer life expectancies throughout the world as cause for celebration, and then goes on to condemn the “mean-spirited and inaccurate generalization” that this might be a Bad Thing. But he also assumes that fear of the Gray Society is due to their presumed feebleness and drain on resources. Well, I’m more worried about the healthy 65 year-olds who remain in their jobs. The coming bottleneck, combined with the effects of long-term unemployment and a historic recession, will prevent my generation from advancing nearly as far in life as we’d like to.

And then comes (to me) the big paragraph of falsity. I feel a compulsive, nitpicky need to address these points one-by-one:

Today, Ridley points out, among Americans officially designated as “poor,” 99 percent have electricity, running water, and a fridge; 95 percent have a television; 71 percent have a car; and 70 percent have air conditioning.

How many still have jobs? How many are going to lose their things when the repo man comes? How many are going to have to leave that ‘stuff’ in their house when the bank forecloses on them?

Some people—usually well-off commentators, people like Oprah—scoff at the little guy’s desire for more and more stuff. Yet we underestimate how these things have improved human life. How much backbreaking female drudgery was wiped out by the invention of the washing machine?

That’s your first point? Look at Ruth Schwartz Cowan’s More Work for Mother, or Susan Strasser’s Never Done, or Jeanne Boydston’s Home and Work; they all conclude that the length of time it takes to clean the house has not decreased by a single minute despite all our new time-saving technologies. And in the instances where it does free up women to take a second job, then much of the home labor is replaced by domestic help, insuring backbreaking female drudgery – just for a different female.

How many man-hours have been saved by the availability of cars for shopping, school-drops, and visiting relatives?

The car in fact filled much of the time freed by miraculous new devices, adding a new duty to “the housewife’s traditional job description: chauffeur.” And yes, O’Neill in his review does account for the green point of view about the perhaps less-than-positive environmental effects of the automobile: “today’s veritable army of Green activists never tires of telling us that we have raped Gaia and polluted the planet through our creation of this stuff that we’re all so desperate to get our grubby hands on.” Well, so much for global warming, then.

How much healthier is our food, and longer-lasting, now that virtually everyone in the Western world has a refrigerator?

The only thing I wouldn’t dispute here is longer-lasting. But what are we putting in our fridges and in our bodies? I love food; I love food that’s terrible for me; I’m not a proselytizing food Nazi like so many seem to be these days. And yet I recognize the awfulness of today’s junk. It may last forever, but only because it’s crammed full of the same chemical designed to dissolve limescale.

Ridley blames any opinion to the contrary – the idea that maybe these things are irrelevant in the long run – as an episode of fake “affluenza,” a made-up disease that apparently isn’t real. He thinks that money can buy happiness.

If he’s right in some fashion, it would be solely a material wealth that we have. We have lots of stuff, but who has more? The classes tearing the country apart and the ‘vampire squids‘ sucking it dry. I can find little solace in my material situation (which frankly, isn’t even that good) when our political – and dare I say, metaphysical? – situations are so sorely lacking. Now is no time for optimism; optimism breeds complacency. Now is a time for pessimism, for righteous anger, and more than anything, for action.

It’s Not So Bad

If the 2010 midterm elections were a referendum on anything (which they weren’t), supposedly it was the previous eighteen months of Democratic governance. And in retrospect, by that measurement the last eighteen months were in fact wildly successful.

I was so blinded by the infuriating things the Obama Administration hadn’t done that I missed everything we had. But caught up in that was the fact that maybe Democrats weren’t more concerned with reelection than with getting things done; that we did pass health care, financial reform, and a stimulus, and so what if it cost us the House? Those things are repeal-proof. William Saletan puts it more eloquently:

Politicians have tried and failed for decades to enact universal health care. This time, they succeeded. In 2008, Democrats won the presidency and both houses of Congress, and by the thinnest of margins, they rammed a bill through. They weren’t going to get another opportunity for a very long time. It cost them their majority, and it was worth it…

Will Republicans revisit health care? Sure. Will they enact some changes to the program? Yes, and Democrats will help them. Every program needs revisions. Republicans will get other things, too: business tax breaks, education reform, more nuclear power, and a crackdown on earmarks. These are issues on which both parties can agree. Which is why, if you’re a Democrat, you deal with them after you’ve lost your majority—not before.

This is what I’ve always been saying – you’re elected to govern, not to win reelection – and right in front of my eyes, Democrats did just that. What made it worse, in the end, might be that so many ended up running away from their accomplishments. And accomplishments they are. At this point, as an icy calm washes over me, I prefer to think that the Democratic class of 2008 was brought in to do a job. It was a temporary, contract position. They got it done, and then their employment ended. Soon we might need them back again.

But now, Mr. President, can we please have some civil liberties back? And quit defending DADT before I change my mind about you.

The Three Wedges

The growing cacophonous din of bad commentary and worse analysis regarding the midterm elections, amplified and joined by whiny, overreacting Democrats and pathetically delusional, ra ra rudderless Republicans resembles the drunk and underinformed fandom of NFL teams- a myopic and limited view of existence where coaches’ heads are called to roll, often for contradictory reasons, and any flag thrown, regardless of accuracy, was a terrible call by a blind ref if it went against your logoed helmet.

For years at the old Giants Stadium a large group of inebriated Jets fans, upset and bored with the poor performance of their team, would gather at the Gate D ramp begin chanting “show us your tits!” at any woman who might walk by.

If you cared particularly about the national implications of this midterm election, thought it mattered at all, let alone felt depressed or angry or triumphant from its results…

…you are sadly the civic and intellectual equivalent of these Jets fans of yore.

Continuing with the athletic analogies, if only to piss off my colleague Heinlein-

It is an oft unthought truth that all competitive practices are relative. At any game where your primary opponents are not stopwatches or courses but human beings your performance or skill is completely dependent on that of your opponent. There are no independent variables.

This is summarily true in both legislative and electoral politics. Both sides only exist in terms and in spite of the other.

Instead of looking for truth or insight by analyzing Obama’s inner psyche or the policy specifics of message politics, in place of dissecting enthusiasm gaps and legislative plans, the only real wisdom I am able to gleam from this particular November theatrical farce is how it reflects the decisiveness, mediocrity, and dishonesty of modern American politik.

We have entered an age where there are three incommensurable groups, two systemically doomed by their unwillingness to be truthful to their ideals and one which believes the whole game to be folly. Both the real left and the real right in this country are lying about what they actually believe.

The majority of progressives/Democrats/liberals really do believe in social democracy; they want their country to resemble socialized Europe, particularly Scandinavia. For the most part they do want to take your guns and marginalize your God, they believe violent video games cause actual violence and that amnesty should be given to the millions of illegal aliens who are taking the jobs you (still) don’t want. They think success should be taxed, heavily. While the majority believe these things, with the exception of Bernie Sanders, they do not put forth candidates who say so, and barely speak honestly themselves.

Likewise, the majority of the American Right really does believe the US is under God, Christian God, Evangelical God, Jews allowed only as a way to hasten the second coming. They really do think gays and lesbians (or they would say “homosexual” [followed by "menace" behind closed doors]) are destroying their children’s’ values and futures. They believe that what you earn is what you should keep, even though they’ll blurt it while accepting the SSA check each month, what is mine is mine and all of that, charity and caring for one’s brother the province of dear old God and His churches, hopefully subsidized. They support institutions that endorse corporal punishment for children and the banning of interracial dating, in their heart of hearts harboring deep prejudice and hatred for those who don’t fit in their whitewashed ahistorical historical vision.  And while some of them (see: tea party) are beginning to be honest about a slight some of those views, they still don’t come out and say that their skin is crawling at the notion that the US will soon be a majority non-white country, something they surely must not believe the founding fathers intended.

The third group, now the largest demographically, the others,  has moved from its shallow 90′s third party idealized roots and determined most of the real decisions in this country are made outside the three federal branches, larger economic and social forces determined by entrepreneurship and innovation, vote by venture capital and music video. The GOP having bled the vast majority of its socially liberal fiscal conservatives, who thought that having an I-Pad and listening to Darwin might not be terrible ideas, not to mention that marijuana might be less harmful than alcohol, and swelled the ranks of these disillusioned refugees, many of whom spurn the national voting process altogether. The third group believes the other two are idiots. The only high-profile elected member of this group, dear Mr. Bloomberg, said today. I for one think he was right.

These three groups now sit, two of them yelling incoherent and uncombinable visions for an American future and somehow both expecting theirs to prevail, the third hiding its head under the sand and refusing to take real control… [Zuckerberg and Brin exempted]

The slate of economic, international, and civic problems currently facing our nation and the enfeebled attempts of politicians and government to solve those problems are the result of these three wedges in the pie chart, the growing apathy of American voters combined with the fleeing disenchanted, a new plurality which makes the other two impotent fools going back and forth in a muddy tug of war whose wins and losses are overdetermined.

The Super Bowl is not won or lost on any particular week, or even any particular season. Success and progress work differently than that.

What’s Wrong with This Country?

I heard that once upon a time in a magical decade, jobs were plentiful and prosperity ruled the land.

Then the 2000s came.

The Infuriation of Obama Supporters

My colleague Mandrake deserves a truly well thought-out response to his argument for the impossible position that President Obama has been put in. But alas, for now, the pithy summary I present here will not only have to suffice, but in fact is more than enough – in only a few short items – to continue to further my case.

Krugman has it down pretty exactly in his “Epitaph for an Administration“:

In today’s report on the foreclosure mess, a revealing sentence:

As the foreclosure abuses have come to light, the Obama administration has resisted calls for a more forceful response, worried that added pressure might spook the banks and hobble the broader economy.

Surely this can serve as a generic statement:

As NAME ISSUE HERE has come to light, the Obama administration has resisted calls for a more forceful response, worried that added pressure might spook the banks and hobble the broader economy.

Stimulus, bank rescue, China, foreclosure; it applies all along. At each point there were arguments for not acting; but the cumulative effect has been drift, and a looming catastrophe in the midterms.

Or to put it another way, the administration has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. And soon there won’t be any more opportunities to miss.

Which is really the summary of my own critiques of the administration. It is constantly coughing up the ball, unable to shoot straight (Leo would be so upset). Consider recent – very recent – developments coming from the White House.

Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell was ruled unconstitutional to the delight of pretty much everyone. Given the chance to not appeal – and such inaction is not without precedent – Obama opted have the Justice Department continue the appeals process, despite his assurances that DADT “will end on my watch.” Blown chance.

News comes out of California that despite the increasingly likely passage of Proposition 19, legalizing possession and sale of marijuana, the Justice Department will “not look the other way” and instead “vigorously enforce” federal anti-pot laws. Their argument: Proposition 19 poses the same threat to federal supremacy as Arizona’s SB1070. Except, of course, that in Arizona the problem is the pesky Fourth Amendment, whereas the justification in California is…what, the commerce clause? Not so much a blown chance as an active decision to continue horribly misguided policies.

And last (keeping in mind that these stories came only three days apart), we have yet another expansion of federal wiretapping capabilities. A mandate that telecom companies “ensure that any network changes will not disrupt their ability to conduct wiretaps.” Wow. I mean, you want to talk about standing in the way of progress… The government is demanding that improvements to our communications infrastructure be put on hold while their own technology catches up.

Three days, three massive disappointments. How many left to go? And even more terrifyingly, what’s the alternative?

Obama’s Catch-22: A Response to “On Leadership”

I apologize that my first post is not only an editorial but also a very late rebuttal to my new colleague Mr. March over his previous post “On Leadership” where he bemoans his grievances with the Obama administration. This is unfortunately becoming a more common sentiment amongst Democrats and I feel that this is something that needs to be addressed.

The core issue for Mr. March, and for many Democrats, has been the administration’s “radically centrist agenda.” Mr. March admits that there has been significant progress and in fact, he believes that Obama is “the most successful domestic Democratic president of the last 40 years.” However, the Administration’s policies are apparently too “radically centrist” for Mr. March.

It’s almost comical for devout political junkies to hear this complaint repeatedly arise (and it does arise repeatedly) because this is exactly what Obama promised to do as President. Literally, from Day 1, Obama made it clear that he would lead as the pragmatic, centrist reformer, that his Administration would follow the Lincoln ‘Team of Rivals” approach which would try to bring both parties together to solve American’s crippling problems. To the politically addicted, it was a joke when Obama was labeled the far left, socialist candidate by right-wing media outlets because if anything, we knew he wasn’t left enough.

However, day after day the narrative continued from the pundits of radical socialist Obama, the man who would destroy everything this great country stands for until it became Communist Russia. The echo chamber galvanized people’s belief of the administration from the campaign trail and convinced everyone that this was how life would look after the Kenyan-born Muslim Barack Hussein Obama took office, regardless of “facts.” I dismissed the rhetoric believing that the reality the administration’s work would dissolve the fog of Hope and Fear, leaving us with normal acceptance of Obama’s job performance. In reality, it was a crippling double-edged sword enraging one side for turning their beloved country socialist and the other for not fulfilling his supposed far left-wing agenda.

Unfortunately, the Republicans have again and again capitalized on the situation, blasting the left for passing what they call socialist legislation, which in reality is very moderate, then rallying their base when it doesn’t do enough to solve our crippling problems. They cashed in the long-term Hope of truly fixing some of our country’s major problems for a short-term win in November. (Which they will soon regret when they see whom they’ve invited into their tent, but we’ll save that for another post.) And while all of this is going on the Democrats are doing what they do best: completely fucking everything up. Most will agree that the Democrats performance has been flaccid at best and the public needs to separate their frustration with the Democratic Party from that of the President, he may be the head of the Party but he’s still herding cats.

Yes, Obama probably should have just taken a page from W.’s playbook and arm-twisted his way into getting his agenda passed, destroying anyone in his way whether it was a political ally or an undercover CIA Agent. But he didn’t. He wanted to try and Change government and do something which politicians always talk about but never do: Unite. Bring both sides together to solve the problems which are creating irreparable damage to our country and address some of the problems which we’ve been putting off for decades. It’s truly unfortunate that Obama’s idealistic approach to government didn’t work; he naively waited for the other side to meet him in the middle and quickly found himself alone. While his attempt was not as successful as most would have liked, we should be rewarding his courage to approach our problems apolitically as the leader of a country which is so politically diverse.

Cautious Optimism for Renewed Peace-Talks

[This piece comes to us via an old colleague and friend - RAH]

Cautious Optimism for Renewed Peace-Talks

Ishan Rakan Banerjee

6 September 2010

The most recent round of trilateral talks between the Obama Administration, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority, has conjured mixed feelings in the Middle East.  In the Arab World, the political establishment has transitioned from skepticism to moderately hopeful, and yet the regional media and popular street have, by contrast, been increasingly negative.  While the Israeli public has been similarly cynical there’s no doubt that their leadership is taking unprecedented, maybe even bold, steps to build confidence.

Arab-League head honcho, Amr Moussa, has turned into a believer, announcing that this round of negotiations will be so conclusive that “it will probably be the last.”  Despite his optimism, and the enormous capital invested by the Mubarak regime in Egypt, Arab pundits and journalists have expressed deep suspicion in Israel’s commitment to peace, and even question the moral character of its premier, Bibi Netanyahu.

One commentator for the Lebanese daily, al-Hayat, sarcastically mused that Abu Mazen would, at the bargaining table, question Netanyahu’s involvement in war-crimes and, more maliciously, inquire into his various divorces.  Even if they don’t share this reporter’s judgment of personality, the majority of Palestinians—sixty percent according to the Christian Science Monitor—seem to sympathize with his assessment of the Peace Process as an unimpressive enterprise.

Israelis too are divided.  Overwhelmingly, the public at large believes that the Palestinian Authority lacks the infrastructure necessary to commit its constituents to peace.  That said, while there are also pessimists in the political world, one really must marvel at the extent to which Netanyahu has put himself on the line.  Indeed, despite calls from conservatives to boycott the negotiations after the shooting of settlers by Hamas agents in Hebron, he not only has stayed the course, but, remarkably, forsworn his typical heavy-handedness and let Palestinian security forces dole out the first wave of reprisals.  This restraint led one hopeful Haaretz columnist to liken him to Gorbachev.

That Same Old Music:

Maybe the cynics are on to something.  After all, even in the opening weeks of this round of talks, the same obstacles that have frustrated the Peace Process are reemerging.  Indeed, negotiators are again learning that “final-status” issues, such as the recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, the status of Palestinian refugees, the division of Jerusalem, and continued colonization of the West Bank, are nearly impossible to compromise on.

Even the least troublesome point of contention—cessation of settlement activity—is proving to be just controversial enough to derail reconciliation efforts.  It is largely understood that insofar as the negotiators’ objective is a Two-State Solution, a contiguous Palestinian state must be allowed to emerge in the West Bank (and ideally Gaza as well).  The obstacle posed to this by increased Jewish settlement is obvious, and yet, it is unclear how long Netanyahu will extend the moratorium on some colonization efforts.  So much hinges on his willingness to do so that Palestinian negotiators have repeatedly threatened to walk away from the table if this is not observed as a condition for their participation.

But the Israelis aren’t without their demands either. They are insisting that without a guarantee that their country’s identity as a Jewish State be recognized they will also abandon the Peace Process.  This stipulation is even more controversial as it is related to another final status issue: the Right of Return.  As it is interpreted throughout the Arab World, Israel’s identity as a Jewish State can only be assured if the millions of Palestinian families that were expelled or left its territory are prevented from coming back and upsetting the demographic balance.  Abu Mazen and his deputies cannot concede to this demand wholeheartedly as they will be interpreted as undermining the refugees’ entitlements as displaced and indigenous persons.

So, the major challenges to reconciliation are still there, and, as a cursory look at polling in both communities will indicate, there is not very much popular support (or confidence) in renewed efforts to find a solution.  Given that both parties have set very demanding preconditions for their meeting it is not hard to explain the pessimism.

Something up Mitchell’s Sleeve:

As much as critics feel inclined to immediately write-off the negotiations as doomed, there are a lot of advantages that the participants can draw on, which were simply unavailable at Annapolis (or at any point since Oslo).  The first two assets that ought to be mentioned have to do with the changes to the political climate in the United States, Israel, and The Occupied Territories.  In addition to this, and perhaps of more importance, we ought to recognize the impressive development of Palestinian military and economic apparatus and appreciate the frequency of trilateral negotiations will be on par with the shuttle-diplomacy of the Nixon era.

We need not mention the, ahem, “soulful” gesture of the Iraqi journalist Muntadhar al-Zaidi to recall that George W. Bush was not well-regarded in the Arab or Islamic worlds.  Obama’s vindication of his campaign promise to improve US standing in the Middle East has helped him distinguish himself from his predecessor as a mediator.  His involvement in brokering peace between Israelis and Palestinians has, at least for the latter group, increased willingness to participate in negotiations.  Indeed, the Arab League has directly cited the perceived sincerity of President Obama as a source of confidence.  Its obvious that his planned attendance in future meetings is meant to leverage his popularity.

In stark contrast to the circumstances of the Annapolis Summit, recent peace talks are being conducted in an atmosphere of anti-establishment sentiment in the United States, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority.  Abu Mazen, long seen as an ineffectual and uncharismatic successor to Arafat, must secure a symbolic concession to save his reputation from accusations of impotence during Hamas’ seizure of Gaza and Israel’s controversial Cast Lead Campaign.  And although his electorate is more concerned with domestic issues such as the economy, President Obama has to chalk up some wins in order to bolster his supporters in the Democratic Congress.  Bibi, for his part, must maintain a fragile parliamentary coalition and avoid barbs from ambitious opponents in the Left such as Former Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni.  Indeed, the perception popularized by Labor, that he failed to secure peace, cost him his portfolio in 1999.

However these factors play into the bargaining process, it’s quite clear that they did not exist two years ago when two governments out of three were on the verge of leaving office.

It seems unlikely that anyone at Annapolis anticipated the extent to which the US state department would, under the auspices of Mrs. Clinton, succeed in promoting regular interaction between negotiators.  Moreover—and this is really quite remarkable—no one could have predicted the extent to which the Palestinian West Bank would develop into a near-functional state with an active economy and competent police force.  Indeed, who would have trusted the Palestinian Authority with counter-terrorism campaigns after its embarrassing defeat to the relatively smaller paramilitary forces of Hamas?  And yet, Israel’s most hawkish (non-comatose) Prime Minister more-or-less did so last month.

Commenting on the weekend session, Netanyahu said, “that what is needed now in order to move the process is not multiplicity of [negotiation] teams but rather decisions of leaders.”  His commitment to meet more regularly with his Palestinian counter-parts face-to-face was welcomed by Abu Mazen’s team, and ought to inspire confidence among cynics.  Indeed, without mediators to speak on their behalf, the negotiators will have to stake their personal and political reputations on their ability to obtain a mutually desired compromise.  Moreover the direct involvement of third-party brokers will maintain the pace of progress and provide access to additional bargaining resources.

In addition to being able to draw on diplomatic advantages, Abbas’ delegation also has, for the first time in the history the Peace Process, access to infrastructural development that will allow it to meet its obligations and transform Israeli concessions into tangible benefits for everyday people in the West Bank.  Indeed, in terms of economic cultivation, we need only recall Thomas L. Friedman’s observation that, despite being in a state of siege, the Palestinian stock exchange, or al-Quds Index, has reported more growth this year than many surrounding Arab countries.  Indeed, as it would happen, investors are cashing in on shares that have deflated in value as a result of political circumstances.

Moreover, while economic analysts in The Territories have been researching how to increase the efficiency and profitability of public-sector investment, the European Union has honored its pledge to continue to keep the Palestinian civil service afloat.  In a recent study commissioned by the Ministry of Transport and Communications, Khaled Zaiden called on the removal of draconian regulations on private vehicle licensing as they contribute to the Palestinian Authority’s notoriously corrupt administrative bureaucracy.  That Zaiden’s findings were published in the Fatah-friendly daily, Al-Ayyam, ought to inspire confidence that they will be adhered to by Abbas’s government.

Its also worth noting that the European Union has pooled tens of millions of euros together in order to promote small-business growth and ensure that the Palestinian Authority can pay its administrators and police force.  Guaranteeing that salaries and pensions are protected from potential economic downturns ought to inspire confidence that negotiators will have the bureaucratic tools to meet their commitments.

Finally, and of no small importance, we ought to remind ourselves that not only has Abbas been given millions in military hardware and training, but, has also been granted space to act by the Israeli occupation authorities.  Even after the unexpected murder of settlers by Hamas agents, Netanyahu, unexpectedly stayed his hand and allowed Palestinian security forces to make the first string of arrests.  Obviously trust is still quite fragile and Israel has by no means abandoned strong-arm tactics—in addition to deadly air strikes in Gaza, Israel has detained dozens of activists in the West Bank.  That said, it ought to be noted that, despite the hawkish elements of his government, Netanyahu made no grand display of force.  In fact, his inviting the Palestinian Authority to keep their house in order demonstrated his willingness to cede over military powers to a former adversary indicates his faith in its competence.

The violence continues; the local, Arabic-language press speaks of the continued, extra-judicial detention of activists in the West Bank, rioting, and frequent confrontations with the Israeli army.  In one such incident, outside the suburb of Beit Hannoun, the site of what international observers called a massacre in 2008, hordes of bystanders recently engaged soldiers who were, apparently, attempting to uproot a tree so that they could lay down fencing.  So, the situation is still grim.  That said, there may be some silver lining behind the clouds, and we ought to keep our eyes open for more in the coming weeks.

Russian Style Diplomacy

According to the NYT, diplomats of all cultures are capable of getting obliterated and saying inappropriate things….

Ahh, the joys of diplomatic immunity.