[This piece comes to us via an old colleague and friend - RAH]
Cautious Optimism for Renewed Peace-Talks
Ishan Rakan Banerjee
6 September 2010
The most recent round of trilateral talks between the Obama Administration, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority, has conjured mixed feelings in the Middle East. In the Arab World, the political establishment has transitioned from skepticism to moderately hopeful, and yet the regional media and popular street have, by contrast, been increasingly negative. While the Israeli public has been similarly cynical there’s no doubt that their leadership is taking unprecedented, maybe even bold, steps to build confidence.
Arab-League head honcho, Amr Moussa, has turned into a believer, announcing that this round of negotiations will be so conclusive that “it will probably be the last.” Despite his optimism, and the enormous capital invested by the Mubarak regime in Egypt, Arab pundits and journalists have expressed deep suspicion in Israel’s commitment to peace, and even question the moral character of its premier, Bibi Netanyahu.
One commentator for the Lebanese daily, al-Hayat, sarcastically mused that Abu Mazen would, at the bargaining table, question Netanyahu’s involvement in war-crimes and, more maliciously, inquire into his various divorces. Even if they don’t share this reporter’s judgment of personality, the majority of Palestinians—sixty percent according to the Christian Science Monitor—seem to sympathize with his assessment of the Peace Process as an unimpressive enterprise.
Israelis too are divided. Overwhelmingly, the public at large believes that the Palestinian Authority lacks the infrastructure necessary to commit its constituents to peace. That said, while there are also pessimists in the political world, one really must marvel at the extent to which Netanyahu has put himself on the line. Indeed, despite calls from conservatives to boycott the negotiations after the shooting of settlers by Hamas agents in Hebron, he not only has stayed the course, but, remarkably, forsworn his typical heavy-handedness and let Palestinian security forces dole out the first wave of reprisals. This restraint led one hopeful Haaretz columnist to liken him to Gorbachev.
That Same Old Music:
Maybe the cynics are on to something. After all, even in the opening weeks of this round of talks, the same obstacles that have frustrated the Peace Process are reemerging. Indeed, negotiators are again learning that “final-status” issues, such as the recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, the status of Palestinian refugees, the division of Jerusalem, and continued colonization of the West Bank, are nearly impossible to compromise on.
Even the least troublesome point of contention—cessation of settlement activity—is proving to be just controversial enough to derail reconciliation efforts. It is largely understood that insofar as the negotiators’ objective is a Two-State Solution, a contiguous Palestinian state must be allowed to emerge in the West Bank (and ideally Gaza as well). The obstacle posed to this by increased Jewish settlement is obvious, and yet, it is unclear how long Netanyahu will extend the moratorium on some colonization efforts. So much hinges on his willingness to do so that Palestinian negotiators have repeatedly threatened to walk away from the table if this is not observed as a condition for their participation.
But the Israelis aren’t without their demands either. They are insisting that without a guarantee that their country’s identity as a Jewish State be recognized they will also abandon the Peace Process. This stipulation is even more controversial as it is related to another final status issue: the Right of Return. As it is interpreted throughout the Arab World, Israel’s identity as a Jewish State can only be assured if the millions of Palestinian families that were expelled or left its territory are prevented from coming back and upsetting the demographic balance. Abu Mazen and his deputies cannot concede to this demand wholeheartedly as they will be interpreted as undermining the refugees’ entitlements as displaced and indigenous persons.
So, the major challenges to reconciliation are still there, and, as a cursory look at polling in both communities will indicate, there is not very much popular support (or confidence) in renewed efforts to find a solution. Given that both parties have set very demanding preconditions for their meeting it is not hard to explain the pessimism.
Something up Mitchell’s Sleeve:
As much as critics feel inclined to immediately write-off the negotiations as doomed, there are a lot of advantages that the participants can draw on, which were simply unavailable at Annapolis (or at any point since Oslo). The first two assets that ought to be mentioned have to do with the changes to the political climate in the United States, Israel, and The Occupied Territories. In addition to this, and perhaps of more importance, we ought to recognize the impressive development of Palestinian military and economic apparatus and appreciate the frequency of trilateral negotiations will be on par with the shuttle-diplomacy of the Nixon era.
We need not mention the, ahem, “soulful” gesture of the Iraqi journalist Muntadhar al-Zaidi to recall that George W. Bush was not well-regarded in the Arab or Islamic worlds. Obama’s vindication of his campaign promise to improve US standing in the Middle East has helped him distinguish himself from his predecessor as a mediator. His involvement in brokering peace between Israelis and Palestinians has, at least for the latter group, increased willingness to participate in negotiations. Indeed, the Arab League has directly cited the perceived sincerity of President Obama as a source of confidence. Its obvious that his planned attendance in future meetings is meant to leverage his popularity.
In stark contrast to the circumstances of the Annapolis Summit, recent peace talks are being conducted in an atmosphere of anti-establishment sentiment in the United States, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority. Abu Mazen, long seen as an ineffectual and uncharismatic successor to Arafat, must secure a symbolic concession to save his reputation from accusations of impotence during Hamas’ seizure of Gaza and Israel’s controversial Cast Lead Campaign. And although his electorate is more concerned with domestic issues such as the economy, President Obama has to chalk up some wins in order to bolster his supporters in the Democratic Congress. Bibi, for his part, must maintain a fragile parliamentary coalition and avoid barbs from ambitious opponents in the Left such as Former Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni. Indeed, the perception popularized by Labor, that he failed to secure peace, cost him his portfolio in 1999.
However these factors play into the bargaining process, it’s quite clear that they did not exist two years ago when two governments out of three were on the verge of leaving office.
It seems unlikely that anyone at Annapolis anticipated the extent to which the US state department would, under the auspices of Mrs. Clinton, succeed in promoting regular interaction between negotiators. Moreover—and this is really quite remarkable—no one could have predicted the extent to which the Palestinian West Bank would develop into a near-functional state with an active economy and competent police force. Indeed, who would have trusted the Palestinian Authority with counter-terrorism campaigns after its embarrassing defeat to the relatively smaller paramilitary forces of Hamas? And yet, Israel’s most hawkish (non-comatose) Prime Minister more-or-less did so last month.
Commenting on the weekend session, Netanyahu said, “that what is needed now in order to move the process is not multiplicity of [negotiation] teams but rather decisions of leaders.” His commitment to meet more regularly with his Palestinian counter-parts face-to-face was welcomed by Abu Mazen’s team, and ought to inspire confidence among cynics. Indeed, without mediators to speak on their behalf, the negotiators will have to stake their personal and political reputations on their ability to obtain a mutually desired compromise. Moreover the direct involvement of third-party brokers will maintain the pace of progress and provide access to additional bargaining resources.
In addition to being able to draw on diplomatic advantages, Abbas’ delegation also has, for the first time in the history the Peace Process, access to infrastructural development that will allow it to meet its obligations and transform Israeli concessions into tangible benefits for everyday people in the West Bank. Indeed, in terms of economic cultivation, we need only recall Thomas L. Friedman’s observation that, despite being in a state of siege, the Palestinian stock exchange, or al-Quds Index, has reported more growth this year than many surrounding Arab countries. Indeed, as it would happen, investors are cashing in on shares that have deflated in value as a result of political circumstances.
Moreover, while economic analysts in The Territories have been researching how to increase the efficiency and profitability of public-sector investment, the European Union has honored its pledge to continue to keep the Palestinian civil service afloat. In a recent study commissioned by the Ministry of Transport and Communications, Khaled Zaiden called on the removal of draconian regulations on private vehicle licensing as they contribute to the Palestinian Authority’s notoriously corrupt administrative bureaucracy. That Zaiden’s findings were published in the Fatah-friendly daily, Al-Ayyam, ought to inspire confidence that they will be adhered to by Abbas’s government.
Its also worth noting that the European Union has pooled tens of millions of euros together in order to promote small-business growth and ensure that the Palestinian Authority can pay its administrators and police force. Guaranteeing that salaries and pensions are protected from potential economic downturns ought to inspire confidence that negotiators will have the bureaucratic tools to meet their commitments.
Finally, and of no small importance, we ought to remind ourselves that not only has Abbas been given millions in military hardware and training, but, has also been granted space to act by the Israeli occupation authorities. Even after the unexpected murder of settlers by Hamas agents, Netanyahu, unexpectedly stayed his hand and allowed Palestinian security forces to make the first string of arrests. Obviously trust is still quite fragile and Israel has by no means abandoned strong-arm tactics—in addition to deadly air strikes in Gaza, Israel has detained dozens of activists in the West Bank. That said, it ought to be noted that, despite the hawkish elements of his government, Netanyahu made no grand display of force. In fact, his inviting the Palestinian Authority to keep their house in order demonstrated his willingness to cede over military powers to a former adversary indicates his faith in its competence.
The violence continues; the local, Arabic-language press speaks of the continued, extra-judicial detention of activists in the West Bank, rioting, and frequent confrontations with the Israeli army. In one such incident, outside the suburb of Beit Hannoun, the site of what international observers called a massacre in 2008, hordes of bystanders recently engaged soldiers who were, apparently, attempting to uproot a tree so that they could lay down fencing. So, the situation is still grim. That said, there may be some silver lining behind the clouds, and we ought to keep our eyes open for more in the coming weeks.